The March 29, 2022 article has been updated with additional information.
We are slowly approaching the start to the 2022 growing season. Just a year ago many growers were being advised to sell new crop corn for around $3.50/Bu and beans for $8.75/Bu. Though the charts predicted that higher prices were coming, after six years of low or no profit grain prices, those predictions seemed impossible for growers who had a pessimistic view of the future. We now see that the era of below the true cost of production commodity prices are over with, but with it are the cheap inputs and stable supply chains that we took for granted. In today’s Ag production system everyone wants their share of the pie.
With mid-April here even the calmer individuals are ready for warmer weather to arrive. Simon Atkins forecasts daily highs and lows a month at a time with very good accuracy. He says that on Thursday we will see 60+ degree temps and more southerly breezes. Will the persistent gale force winds be with us as much as the season rolls along? The 2021 season started out very warm and dry early with no rain at all in April and the ground was working as good as people had ever seen it. Then the temps took a nosedive and most operators sat on the sidelines for two weeks until the soil warmed up. Those that waited actually saw some of their better yield with their later planted fields as the moisture situation improved a lot in August.
Has the climate changed? A friend runs NASA’s sun research lab and when I quizzed him he related that globally we are actually in a cooling trend. However, the last two decades we have seen warm weather arrive in late March that stays thru April 20 or 25th, then it cools down a lot thru mid-May. Then we get a quick warm up and early hot temps, where is stays dry except for a 2 to 3-inch hard rain every 3 weeks. A local cropping expert verified these observations. Will we see a repeat? If so, I would suggest planting your larger seed first. Then combinations of microbes and plant health promoting micronutrients in-furrow or on the seed have proven to be valuable inputs to give your seedling the energy they need.
Marketing and Price Projections
Bryce Knorr, market analyst from Chicago, commented on what he forecasts on production and prices based on weather modeling for the spring and summer months by several meteorologists. He plugged in numbers ranging from normal summer rains in the U.S. to the extremes if we have a droughty season here, the major S. American countries stay dry next season, and grain production and exports are impacted by the war in Ukraine. (I learned during my ten days in the Ukraine in 2015 from our 2,400-mile tour and getting into many fields, their climate and rainfall timings will restrict them to planting mostly fall and winter small grains. They don’t have the three geographical/geological features that dictate our weather to produce rain for them in July and August. Even then the Ukrainian farmers were contract producing grain to get railed to buyers in China. Will that grain now stay in Russia?)
His price projections are worth seeing as they sound scary high for end users, livestock feeders and producers. Consumers would see high meat prices even if processors weren’t gouging consumers. Then on the production end he plugs in 82% being above $1600, 46% at $1000, DAP at $1,100 and K at $900. OMG. That does not mesh with any country’s cheap food policies. ie: food shortages, political instability. Look for the above and below articles posted on our website www.centralIowaAg.com
Crop Consultants Spring Meeting
The Iowa Crop Consultants had their spring meeting in late March in Mason City. One of the presenters, Connor, was a graduate student from the U of Ill who works with a funny, small statured and memorable professor, Fred Below. In 2010 three of us (Dave Harms, Rich, myself) were at the Farm Progress Show in Decatur taking in different booths and talks. We wandered into the tent where Fred was giving his presentation on what practices were required to produce 300 Bu/A corn yields. He covered seven topics. We listened and then visited with him afterwards, telling him that we enjoyed his talk, but that he was missing one big component, which was soil biology. His reply was that we were 100% correct and that he had just hired a person to research that arena. Twelve years later we got to hear thru Connor what his team has been studying and learning during that interval.
This is my last column before the main portion of 2022 planting season begins for Midwest crops. (We were in TX three weeks ago and saw corn and rice being planted and irrigated. They finally got their rain but it came with 51 twisters.) What bits of information can I provide readers to help steer them or which may help them stress and drought proof their crops as much as possible? The list includes minerals and biologicals. Though the season may turn out wet, most meteorological observations point to the opposite for west of the Mississippi. Currently over 50% of the U.S. acres are now in some stage of drought. The fall and late winter rains that fell while the soils were thawed did add to the moisture profile.
In 2011 and 2012 we observed that alfalfa and corn, when supplied with adequate amounts of soil or foliar applied minerals, were affected less by heat or drought conditions. Zinc and other minerals help with water use efficiency. Different scientists have also documented that soil or foliar applied silica promotes 33 to 36% greater water use efficiency. It also promotes greater radiation use efficiency (RUE).
There are newer microbials and hormonal products that help plants tolerate heat and moisture stress. Phonix or Respite applied foliarly during the season will lower the canopy temps by 8 – 10 degrees for 2 – 3 weeks at a very low cost. The BioEnsure/Heat Shield/Protect Plus Trichoderma product helps protects plants against both extremes in temps and drought.
Having biologically active soils will promote better uptake of these minerals. This is why having higher Haney scores, being able to document them, and being able to sustain or improve them can be huge. There are a number of companies, mostly smaller ones, providing these on a consistent and affordable basis. The EPA a few years ago created the new category of BioStimulants, mostly meaning living biology(s) that stimulate plant growth, promote mineral uptake or enhance reaction to biotic or abiotic stress. Until now for most acres and most farmers the largest focus of genetic advancement through genetics has been with herbicide resistance. Nature has countered many of those moves. So the next frontier is seen to be finding or developing living organisms or their exudiates which can consistently give treated plants additional properties and either yield more or react more favorably to stresses placed upon them. This gives companies a quicker and less expensive route to their commercialization. Small companies don’t have the budgets and staff to conduct the multi-year nationwide, replicated testing as required for pesticides.
For drought proofing a crop it’s important to plant genetic lines that have deep and spreading root systems. What can also help them is to apply mycorrhizal fungi (MycoGold) that both grows into the plant roots while also extending out five or ten feet to explore for moisture and nutrition. Plants have to turn water, CO2 and sunlight into sugar for plant needs, plus enough feed the microbes inhabiting their rhizosphere. It is a jungle down there that we still understand only a small portion of.
If extremely high fertilizer prices are now the rule, manure will be more valuable, and pit biologicals that then convert N and S into the organic form, will need to be used more often. Microbes that make key minerals available will also have more value. We expect that both the Soil Matrix and BioDyne products will be applied on more acres. Fall residue programs that promote faster nutrient cycling and improved water infiltration will be adopted on more acres.
Can we expect as much N to be fixed by the microbes promising to fill that role? The two most advertised ones are Envita and Pivot Bio. Between the two I trust Envita the most. The ones with the longest track record are members of the Azotobacter and Azospirillium families. Both of these families are from the USDA collection and need to be applied in a program. They typically are either included in pre or at-planting applications or applied foliarly with sugar/molasses or solubilized fish as their food. There are now foliar companion products which serve as the late nutrition for those bacteria using less sticky or lower volume products. I have seen in Davenport area fields the N-fixing bacteria applications improve the Spad readings from a low 50s to 80 reading in 3 to 5 days. The high priced nitrogen products may have to be supplemented by pulling more N from the 78% content of the atmosphere. There may not be the chance to apply low priced N for the 2023 corn crop. Expect to see more pit additives used as the best candidates increase the value of manure treatment products by capturing both NH4 and the sulfur that create the bad odors.
The search is also on for ancient N fixing microbes that allow a plant to need no outside applied N. The question then will be whether your soils support such microbial growth or kill them. Finding substitutes or replacements for the current fungicide families that don’t cause the collateral damage and death to these N fixing microbes will be a top priority. These will not be Fl or Cl based compounds.
Last season we were introduced to a product called RSTC-17, which contains a mix of sugar, carbons and a microbial product to create a warmer seed bed with higher oxygen level perfect for microbial activity. Farmers in states to our south who typically try to plant corn early to get grain fill completed before their late-July and August heat arrives could use a product which can create a warmer, oxygenated seed bed than nature typically provides. Growers to our north who always face slow warming soils would also benefit from using this same product.
If SB prices peak as high as projected, and if weed control suffers due to lack of pre or post herbicides, then there will be more interest in coaxing out higher SB yields. This requires top notch planning and implementation that is quite different from raising high yield corn in that plant growth needs to be manipulated by foliar applications after V5/R1. Late season foliar fertilization is needed to increase seed size to the 2,000 seeds/lb or even larger.
Though tissue testing isn’t promoted as much as it should be, even by universities. In March we flew in a jet airplane. We were expecting the pilots were checked their gauges periodically to ensure all systems were working as planned. Monitoring mineral levels in the plant through tissue testing and obtaining analytical results are a way to check those gauges in plants. Expect small handheld devices that perform the same tasks to be offered to the farming public, as several models already exist.
Tar Spot Observations and Control
Lots of information at winter meetings was devoted to discussing the newer disease called Tar Spot. We did our investigation using affected leaves and the experiences accumulated by the top pathologist/physiologist. The leaf analysis from Iowa and control program used in fields around Monroe, Wisconsin proved to be invaluable. Based on 2020 field results against multiple pathogens in NW IA and against Southern Rust in N Missouri I played a hunch by recommended applying 24 oz of BioEmpruv along with 2 oz each of Albion powdered copper and manganese to 1200 acres of corn in a hot spot for the newer disease. Those results keep the plants green and standing until late with no tip back, with kernels up and over the ear tip. This year we will recommending adding 2 to 3 oz of Albion’s AA chelated zinc to that mix. This mix is less expensive than the first application of the Univ recommended Tar Spot program. The advantages are complete safety to applicators and soil microorganisms, systemic, long reach-back action, long residual, cost effective because the plants in the majority of fields test deficient for multiple major minerals. This program and other mineral based products work by boosting the activity of the plants immune system. provide nutrition to the plants to boost their immune responses. Additional information can be found on our website under News/Educational Articles.
Bob Streit is an independent crop consultant and columnist for Farm News. He can be reached at (515) 709-0143 or www.CentralIowaAg.com.