So, our wonderful USDA is forecasting high yields of the major crops for each state. A few things about their forecast is that they are based on models rather than actual field observations, assume normal temperatures and moisture after that date, and never retract erroneous numbers if they create bearish sentiment in the marketplace. Why that sentiment? Because rainfall amounts in many sections of the state have been way short of normal in the months of May, June, July and August. Rain does not always make grain, as we saw in 1993, but lack of it at critical times can sure take the top and profitable portion off the final yields for many producers. In central Iowa and much of the state we finally received rain in five of the last ten days. The total amounts generally amounted to less than 1”, or about four day’s worth of the amount used by the corn plants. As a result, the amount of tip kernel abortion in corn and pod fill plus pod abortion in soybeans is becoming more visible in fields now. It would be a safe bet to forecast the top yields will come from the north central and northeast side of the state. As a result, a few management steps that could have been initiated to preserve or add bushels in other sections of the state never got done as farmers are already expecting crop insurance low yield triggers being met.
The Farm Progress Show
It seems like eons ago since the Progress group had the FPS in Iowa. The four-year absence was mostly caused by the Plandemic and resentence on the part of major companies following CDC guidelines to help employees avoid crowds and gatherings. The FPS campus has been very busy the last weeks with construction of new buildings and erection of tents and displays. If the weather predictions for cooler temps hold true, the attendance numbers could be very high. Having paved street and many permanent buildings are two items that help guarantee that the show will go on. Anyone who remembers the deep mud of the shows held at the Amana colonies has to be thankful that having a permanent site was something that had to be done.
I get to attend as both a visitor and member of the media. Thus, I have scheduled a few tents and talks that I hope to take in. The late summer shows like the FPS, Husker Harvest, Dakota Days and Farm Fest offer companies a platform to unveil new models, new products and new ideas. Drone application equipment, smaller companies offering new biologicals and the introduction of products or ideas that boost fertilizer efficiency are ideas and displays that I hope to visit and learn about. With the Ukraine and Russian conflict ongoing and producers being asked to forecast their fertility needs to their normal suppliers, the companies that need to procure input supplies more accurately than they ever have previously. The Ryse Recon Co will exhibit a larger drone with the capacity to carry a person aloft for 24 minutes.
Expect to see groups from S America and Europe in attendance. The FPS gives those producers a chance to visit one site where they can get ideas from many of their potential suppliers.
I have attended many different shows in the U.S. as well as several of those in Brazil and Argentina. What was different about the AgroExpos in Brazil is that they include livestock genetic and equipment companies. They include having pens with each of the different breeds of cattle in the country. They also include dairy animals and the latest in milking equipment. And to show off and verify the improvement in beef production and meat quality they have models carrying around and offering samples of freshly grilled steak to all the attendees.
As to show size and wide variety of new or unrecognizable equipment one has to attend the huge irrigation show out in Tulare, CA.
Crop Size Observations and Expectations
The very good yields of 2021 still have not been fully explained. They may have been higher than expected by heavier dews throughout the summer that added to moisture totals when the caused Y dropped moisture to the base of each plant through the night, or the smoke from western wildfires caused higher CO2 levels thru July and August as well as shading action which protected the plants from excess sunshine. Thus, the lower pod number and lack of seed size seen in most bean fields does not currently predict trend line or above trend line bean yields. The same goes for corn in that ear size and grain depth seem below average. The exception for soybeans seems to be that growers who recognized or realized that their bean plants were very late in flowering or were on the path to lower podded node counts, and acted using foliar applications of minerals and energy sources to wake the plants up now have bean plants that could yield well if we get additional rain in the next ten days. So far, the bean crop is still mostly a measure of potential rather than what exists as of Aug 21st.
In the last week I got into NE IA, central IA, and thru SE IA and into N Missouri. I saw many corn fields where the lighter spots in each field were under sever moisture stress or the plants had given up the ghost and has turned brown. In a sizeable % of the fields that top leaves had turned color and were now a brownish orange. This typically means that either Anthracnose die back was occurring or they plants were scavenging for nitrogen to use in finalizing grain fill and had cannibalized the protein held in the upper leaves already. With the lack of N and mineral release from the extremely dry top 36” of soil the plants are due to extract minerals from their own tissue to form grain.
Beginning a week ago the weather patterns changed to one of scarce passing showers and air coming from the north and northwest. The temps are in the mid to low 80s and much more tolerable. That means more morning fogs and more hours of dew. Leaf diseases including Septoria in SBs and leaf rusts plus GLS severity levels are bound to multiply in fields lacking in the major micro-nutrients. This is where a proactive tissue testing program can help growers identify specific nutrient shortages which leave plants vulnerable to opportunistic pathogens.
It is also a time in which the residual effective life of each disease minimizing product or program is put to the test. If you observe and study the preharvest interval of each fungicide, you get to discover how long you can expect to get disease control for. So, say if the preharvest interval for a strobe fungicide is seven days, that is how long you get disease control for minus one day.
Insect Finds
So far there have not been major outbreaks on any soybean insects. There were a few fields in NW Iowa where the aphid populations were approaching treatable populations. Farmer pilots who visit airports to see if the wings are turning green saw that color change begin to appear in early to mid-August. One avenue of control proposed is to apply Mn and Moly to make the plants non-attractive to the migrating winged adults. One tell-tale sign is to watch for dragon flies strafing the plants at low levels.
Bean leaf beetles of the true first brood also began to appear, but at low levels. They are worth scouting and watching to catch any explosion in population. They like to chew into the pods, which allow fungi to gain entry thru the holes formed.
There has not been much news about the SB Gall Midge this summer. Erin Hodgson is collaborating with other state entomologist from MN, NE and SD to unlock secrets of this recent bean pests. This is one place where a very long residual soft insecticide may do the job as a micro-encapsulate product. Might the addition of Argosy lengthen the residual period to 60 to 90 days and offer vaping action? Or would the longevity of O2YS and its chitinase stimulation properties be one of the soft answers?
Pathology Observation
The drier climate this summer has not been conducive to leaf pathogen fungal infections. In the last three weeks, as light rains arrived, I have been seeing more of the caramel-colored lesions showing up on the lower internodes. The characteristic rotting fish smell was also in the second smaller ear that often tried to form with this bacterial infection present. Will this appearance coincide with stalk collapse prior to harvest as seen five and six years ago? Remember back in 2015 when most of the cornfields near the show were dead and brown by the FPS. With so much stalk lodging that harvest demos were cancelled? There was no official explanation of that phenomena.
The Last of the Season Wishes
What we have to wish for now are a few good measurable rains that will help fill the bean pods. Overall podded node counts are down. Unless a person took the steps to increase branch number, increasing seed size is the one factor available to match last year’s unexpected good yields. No one person has the answer to which late season mineral mix will add to bean size. There is a great need for comparison plot trials to be run to provide this information.
Bob Streit is an independent crop consultant and columnist for Farm News. He can be reached at (515) 709-0143 or www.CentralIowaAg.com.