By late 2023 after we have had the fourth consecutive year in a row with very dry conditions where no one could predict how the season and crop size would turn out. At least Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota avoid any sizeable Derechos. Now with large weather changes occurring much of the Cornbelt had their first large moisture front move thru dropping 3 to 6 inches of rain over most areas, with most of it soaking in as recharging the moisture profile is of top priority for us as we move towards the 2024 growing season. The ten-day run of temps ten to twenty degrees colder than normal shocked us and we had to wonder if the early freezing weather was a harbinger of what was to come during the rest of the weather. Most meteorologists make note of us going into the winter with a full El Nino in place with extremely warm waters. They are predicting that much of the nation is likely to receive heavy snows.
By now most Ag producers and Ag staff have read of Elwynn Tylor’s research project he tackled after he came to the Midwest. He follows cycles closely. He became interested in Farmer Benner, an 1800s era Kentucky farmer and amateur weather forecaster who took note of the major 9, 17, and 35-year patterns in the weather and economic cycles. Elwynn was curious enough to seek out old Iowa barns built with native local lumber which he dissected and examined the tree ring evidence to learn of yearly rainfall over that time period. After our 2020-2023 seasons when much of Iowa has been in D1 to D3 droughts, growers and bankers have been very apprehensive about the 2024 and 2025 growing seasons and what was in store for us. So even with Midwest wide recent rains to slow harvest and fieldwork there are few complaints. Partially filling the soil moisture reserves this fall were highly important.
Nationally, following a year plus of the Ukraine war and now the Mideast aflame, China and Russia both seem to want to rile things up on a global scale. China’s long-term goal to gain dominance in eight sectors of industry spurred them to run a Belt and Roads project where they have cozied up to a number of S American countries. They are seeking to gain control of a number of valuable minerals and rare earths by loaning money for large development projects at high rates of interest. Higher than they could repay, so can take total control of the mines. This also concerns grain supplies, as globally, keeping your population fed is a must among national leaders.
One person who tracks and assimilates these global events is a futurist by the name of Peter Ziehan, a native of Marshalltown, IA. He travels the globe and gained insights on the internal developments in many countries. You may wish to check up on him and check out his You-Tube reports. The items he focuses on are food, energy, politics and consumer habits.
Sports and Univ Happenings
I have to make a few comments here. Who would have thought that the Big 8/Big12 or the Big 10 may now become the Big 14 or the Big 16 stretching from Nebraska to New Jersey or Cincinnati to Utah. (We recently drove thru Provo, UT, home of BYU. What a scenic and well-kept city in the middle of the mountains). Two weeks ago, Brock Purdy and his 49ers were in the Twin Cities to play the Vikes. Carol asked what I hoped for. Since I grew up a Vikings fan and also now follow the 49ers, I wanted to have Purdy look great on the nationally broadcast game to prove that Mr. Irrelevant was under rated, but did not want the Vikes to embarrass themselves. I don’t think anyone expected the final score. Mr. Purdy participated in the prayers for the players of both teams praying for their safety and their souls.
In his team’s bye week, when he is engaged to a Sumner, Iowa farm gal, guess who was helping out on the family’s farm and posted a video of themselves running a combine thru a field of standing corn. You should be able to find that clip.
Harvest Reports
As more of the crops were being harvest it was interesting to watch for the results of the FIRST plot harvest results. Those can be examined online by individual plots or by geographical grouping. The good yields achieved in most of them look surprisingly high, especially for the amount of stress which most of them were under for much of the season. Realize that most of them are located on prime ground with some of the highest CSR ratings. Neither the grower or plot coordinators do not want the plot to be lost due to flooding or having sand underneath.
Yields
The normally low variance in yields between plot location was huge this year. The swings in yield for corn was often 100 Bu/A just depending on when, where and how much rain was received. The same goes for bean fields where the swings were often +/- 25%. One tidbit of info that was added was a rainfall graph giving a calendar of rain which includes dates and amounts of precipitation. One fact related to 2023 SB yields is wondering how much higher SB yields would have been with a 2” rain in late August. We kept hoping for that late shower to fill those small and top pods, but it never came. Thus, the SB crop limped to the finish line.
One other item noted is that the FIRST organizers recognize that specialty grain markets do exist and are expected to increase in future years with non-GMO markets having the greatest potential when certain importing countries realize they have the upper hand in negotiations. Rule #1 in business is that the customer is always right.
One major stumbling block existing for second year and continuous corn growers in the Midwest is how to control or minimize root lodging caused by rootworm feeding. The pesky and expensive insects or the microbe in their GI tracts have kept adapting to most programs or products meant to control them. Over the 2022 thru 2024 seasons there are or will be three new items which hold promise to help corn growers with this task. Two of them have seen failure in limited trails already. Stay tuned.
As harvest wraps up, fall tillage gets completed, and fall fertilizer get applied, the thinking and decision process will gravitate to evaluating yield data and yield maps. Which corn and soybean varieties performed the best in 2023 or across the last few years. An old-fashioned idea was looking at three-year results. Now hybrid lineups change a lot faster than that. In corn one noticeable change is that for about ten years quite a few farmers in the northern half of Iowa resorted to planting 110-day hybrids to get the top yield potential. Now for 2024 many seed companies are offering newer hybrids in the 103 to 107 RM range that can compete or outcompete their later counterparts.
Specialty Markets
As the farmed fish industry expands, the nutritional needs of the fish, especially the variance in omega oils and amino acid content and influence on final products are being explored. We also see that more beef industry groups are catering to consumer preferences and recognizing that they can influence meat quality by improving diets and grain constituents. Specialty grains can now shine. John Schillinger, former soybean geneticist and president of Asgrow Seeds and then Schillinger Seeds Founder, always thought that one market that needed to be addressed was farmed fish market and its need for high oleic #3 and low oleic #6 oil for fish food. That has happened and the market is now paying a $5 to $6/Bu premium. One grower commented that their premium for raising 160 acres of a certain high protein, exact oil variety, paid them enough to make a combine payment.
One specialty grain company is capitalizing on that and fisheries demand in the European farmed fish market. As the price of food increases, especially products based on nutritious, contaminant free food, more specialty companies will capitalize on the demand. The recent expose of the ten companies that now include ground insects in their products may not like such disclosure.
Don’t look now but the value of exudates from Algae is being researched as to how it can affect meat quality, rate of gains, microbial activity and efficacy of foliar fertilizers or pesticides. For years the science was coming from facilities in FL and NM. The Los Alamos facility seems to be the hub for such research with input from a former Chico grad. It will be a way to keep producing animal-based meats, since the public has voted thumbs down on lab grown meat.
Cropping Programs
Both corn and soybean yields in most areas were less than hoped for but exceeded what was feared. The yield potentials for each crop have increased greatly in the last few decades as a higher % of the acres are being farmed under higher yield management practices. But the dark cloud on the horizon is that a high % of the acres are becoming more micronutrient deficient, leading to more disease issues which are currently being managed with hard chemistry. Realize the chloride and fluoride-based products are harmful to soil and human health. Another dark cloud is the continued decline in soil organic matter which is happening for three major reasons. Too much tillage and applications of products harmful to soil micro-organisms being among them.
We also have found out that many of the fertilizer input products we always expected to be fully available at affordable costs may not be as available due to politics. The five major sources of P are Russia, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria and the U.S. The large deposit in Ontario called PhosCan needs to be opened up and developed. What has taken this so long? It supposedly holds a 200 to 300 year supply of this mineral. We also have to ask if plant breeders and seed firms have focused too much on yield and not on crop quality or content.
A hopeful indicator is that the conferences and meetings being held on the topic of soil health and organic matter preservation are now much better attended. Those two topics are much more mainstream.
One large topic is the large increase in land prices driven by outside investors which ends up driving up cash rents. This all works if grain prices remain high, but what happens if outside events cause a large drop in those prices. Who gets left holding the bag?
Educational Events
The winter season is a great time to attend a few conferences and meetings where producers can hopefully pick up a few ideas or information that can benefit from. It would be beneficial to start a calendar to track all of them, hoping that a few of them would be within easy traveling distance. Those on the calendar already are the Crop Management Seminar at ISU, the Big Soil Health Event in Cedar Falls, the EcoAg Conference in KY and one we will be involved with near Webster City.
Bob Streit is an independent crop consultant and columnist for Farm News. He can be reached at (515) 709-0143 or www.CentralIowaAg.com.